Surging Crude Oil Prices Boost Energy and Chemical Commodities in China

On April 20, international crude oil futures experienced a sharp rally. The settlement price for the June contract of U.S. WTI crude oil futures closed at $87.42 per barrel, marking an increase of $4.83, or 5.8%. Meanwhile, the settlement price for the June contract of Brent crude oil futures closed at $95.48 per barrel, up $5.10, or 5.6%.

Both WTI and Brent crude oil futures posted single-day gains exceeding 5%—their largest daily increases of the year—reflecting a surge in geopolitical risk premiums. This market movement provides a direct boost to spot crude oil prices; with the short-term supply-demand balance tightening further, the benchmark futures contracts are expected to maintain their strong upward momentum.

Given that crude oil accounts for over 70% of production costs, the sharp jump in raw material prices significantly intensifies cost pressures for asphalt producers. Based on the current settlement price of 4,029 RMB per ton for the 2606 contract of petroleum asphalt futures (data as of April 21), the discount relative to crude oil has widened. With refineries demonstrating a strong resolve to hold up prices, asphalt futures appear to have room for a “catch-up” rally.

The surge in crude oil prices is directly cascading into the refined oil sector, placing pressure on gasoline cracking margins. The spot market is expected to respond rapidly with price adjustments, and retail gasoline stations have ample incentive to follow suit with price hikes. Although there is no direct corresponding futures contract for gasoline itself, the price levels for related energy and chemical commodities are expected to shift upward.

As a direct downstream product of crude oil, diesel benefits from a smoother cost pass-through process, supported by robust demand from the industrialand transportation sectors. Spot wholesale prices for diesel are expected to rise in tandem; while there is no specific futures contract dedicated solely to diesel, commodities comprising diesel components (such as PX and propylene) are already showing expectations for cost-driven price increases.

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